Course 5 · Working knowledge
Risk, allocation and honest expectations
How to size a position, what diversification does and does not do, and why nobody here will promise you a return.
10 lessons, about 90 minutes
What you will be able to do
- Write an allocation you can hold through a bad year.
- Distinguish volatility from permanent loss.
- Spot the sales language that signals a promise nobody can keep.
Lessons
Lesson 1 · 8 min · free preview
What does 'risk' actually mean?
Volatility, permanent loss and shortfall are three different risks.
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Lesson 2 · 9 min
What diversification does and does not do
It reduces exposure to any single failure; it does not remove loss.
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Lesson 3 · 10 min
How much metal should someone own?
There is no universal number, and any firm quoting one is selling.
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Lesson 4 · 9 min
Metal pays no income — so why hold it?
It is held for what it is, not for what it pays.
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Lesson 5 · 8 min
How quickly can it be sold?
Recognised bullion sells readily; obscure products do not.
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Lesson 6 · 10 min
What the price record actually shows
Long strong runs and long flat stretches, both real.
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Lesson 7 · 9 min
What counterparty risk means for savings
Deposits are a bank's liability; a bar in a vault is not anyone's promise.
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Lesson 8 · 10 min
How high-pressure selling works
Urgency, exclusivity, fear and 'proof coins' with hidden margins.
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Lesson 9 · 8 min
Buying an umbrella is not a forecast
Preparation and prediction are different mental acts.
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Lesson 10 · 9 min
Writing a one-page plan you will actually follow
Purpose, horizon, allocation, rebalancing rule, and who to call.
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