Course 6 · Advanced
Reading the economy without being fooled
How to read the official releases yourself, and how to tell an evidence-led argument from a persuasive one.
10 lessons, about 91 minutes
What you will be able to do
- Open and read four official data releases without help.
- Tell the difference between a fact, an inference and a forecast.
- Check a viral claim in under ten minutes.
Lessons
Lesson 1 · 9 min · free preview
Where the numbers actually come from
Treasury, BLS, the Fed and FRED publish nearly everything worth citing.
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Lesson 2 · 10 min
Reading a CPI release
Headline, core, and the shelter component that drives most of it.
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Lesson 3 · 10 min
Reading the yield curve
Short rates are policy; long rates are a market judgement.
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Lesson 4 · 9 min
Reading Debt to the Penny and TIC
One gives the total, the other gives who holds it.
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Lesson 5 · 9 min
Reading money-supply data
Level, growth rate and context, in that order.
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Lesson 6 · 9 min
Reading gold demand data
Sector breakdowns and the estimate quality behind central-bank figures.
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Lesson 7 · 8 min
Fact, inference, forecast — say which one you are making
Most bad financial writing hides the transition between the three.
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Lesson 8 · 10 min
Checking a viral claim in ten minutes
Find the primary source, check the wording, check the date, check the denominator.
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Lesson 9 · 9 min
How charts mislead honestly
Axis choice, start date and scale change the story without any lie.
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Lesson 10 · 8 min
Where serious people disagree, and why that is fine
Inflation causation, gold's role, and debt sustainability all have honest camps.
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Rather ask a person?
A specialist will answer a specific question without a pitch. No account needed, no obligation. Monday – Friday, 7am – 4pm Pacific.