Research division

Market Intelligence

Capstone Metals runs an internal research programme on market behaviour. This page explains what that programme is, how it is tested, and where its limits are. It is education and research. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of any price.

What we are actually studying

There is no single best strategy in markets, and any firm claiming one is selling certainty that does not exist. What the published literature does support is that certain families of behaviour have been documented across markets and decades. We study those families, in the open, and we write down what they do not prove.

Time-series momentum / trend

Persistence of an instrument's own past return over 1–12 month horizons has been documented across liquid futures markets (Moskowitz, Ooi & Pedersen, 2012).

What it does not prove: Documented in a sample period, before costs at the size we would trade, and with long flat or negative stretches. It is not a prediction.

Status: implemented

Cross-sectional momentum

Relative-strength ranking effects appear across and within asset classes (Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen, 2013).

What it does not prove: Crowding, crash risk in reversals, and sensitivity to the ranking window and rebalance frequency.

Status: implemented

Volatility-aware risk management

Scaling exposure by recent realised volatility has been studied as a portfolio management overlay (Moreira & Muir, 2017).

What it does not prove: Reduces volatility, not loss. Adds turnover and therefore cost.

Status: implemented

Value / fundamental factors

Valuation spreads have explanatory power in cross-asset studies.

What it does not prove: Needs point-in-time fundamentals with reporting lags we do not yet ingest.

Status: research module

Mean reversion / statistical arbitrage

Short-horizon reversal and cointegration effects are widely studied.

What it does not prove: Highly sensitive to costs and to regime breaks; needs careful capacity analysis.

Status: research module

Event and macro

Scheduled macro releases move metals and rate-sensitive assets.

What it does not prove: Needs vintage-accurate release data, which is a later ingest module.

Status: research module

Options-implied signals

Implied volatility surfaces and skew carry information.

What it does not prove: No options data source. Deliberately not built.

Status: deferred

Order flow / microstructure

Order-flow imbalance explains short-horizon price moves (Cont, Kukanov & Stoikov, 2014).

What it does not prove: Requires book/trade data and realistic execution modelling. Deliberately not built — a fabricated feature set would be worse than none.

Status: deferred

Reinforcement learning

Promising in simulation.

What it does not prove: Only meaningful once the simulator and data discipline are mature. Deferred.

Status: deferred

Three rules we do not bend

Arithmetic is code, not opinion. Every return, cost, drawdown and risk figure is computed by deterministic, testable code. Language models help read literature and write up findings; they never calculate a result and never decide anything.
A held-back period is held back. Each strategy version reserves a period of history before testing begins, and that period is never used to tune anything. It is used once, to see whether a conclusion survives data it has never seen.
Nothing here trades your money. The programme runs in simulation. No brokerage connection exists, and any change to that would require explicit human authorisation under our governance rules.

What this is not

It is not a prediction that gold, silver, or any other asset will rise or fall.
It is not a performance record offered to the public, and it is not a track record for sale.
It is not a substitute for advice about your own circumstances, tax position or retirement plan.
It does not use paid market-data feeds, order-book data or option chains. Those remain future work.

Read the method

The research methodology page sets out the full sequence a hypothesis must survive, and the tests we run specifically to try to break our own conclusions.

Research methodology

Capstone Metals is a precious-metals and wealth-preservation firm. Nothing on this page is a guarantee of any outcome, and past behaviour of any market is not a reliable guide to its future. Speak with us about your own situation before making a decision: (800) 200-9553.